South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, is once again staring down the barrel of a potential civil war. After decades of conflict to gain independence, and a peace agreement that has barely held together since 2018, the country now finds itself at a dangerous tipping point.
The latest crisis centers on the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar a move that could unravel the delicate power-sharing deal that has kept the country from plunging back into full-scale war.
Machar, a key opposition figure and former rebel leader, was arrested this week. His party, the SPLM/A-IO, says the arrest effectively collapses the peace agreement he signed with President Salva Kiir in 2018. Their statement didn’t mince words: “The prospect for peace and stability in South Sudan has now been put into serious jeopardy.”
That’s not hyperbole. Since the peace deal was brokered, South Sudan has managed an uneasy coexistence between Kiir’s ruling faction largely aligned with the Dinka ethnic group — and Machar’s Nuer-led opposition. But tensions have always simmered beneath the surface, and the recent violence in Nasir, where dozens were reportedly killed in clashes between government troops and a Nuer militia known as the White Army, signals that those tensions are boiling over.
To complicate things further, South Sudan’s government has brought in troops from Uganda to help suppress local militias — a move Machar denounced in a letter to the UN Secretary-General, calling it a violation of the peace accord. His party labeled the move “military aggression against civilians.” Meanwhile, the government accuses Machar of inciting rebellion and trying to disrupt planned elections.
Information Minister Michael Makuei claimed that intelligence reports link Machar to a militia attack on a UN helicopter an incident that also killed a high-ranking government commander, General David Majur Dak. According to Makuei, Machar and his allies are “anti-peace” and will be “brought to book.” The SPLM/A-IO denies ties to the militia and hasn’t responded to the new allegations.
The World Responds Cautiously
The international community is watching closely but warily. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the situation as “darkly reminiscent” of South Sudan’s previous civil wars, warning that the country is “one step closer to collapse.” A coalition of Western embassies, including the US, UK, France, Germany, and the EU, has called for Machar’s release and an immediate ceasefire.
The African Union has announced it will dispatch a diplomatic delegation to the capital, Juba, to dial down the tension. Meanwhile, Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has stepped in as a regional mediator. “I’m encouraged by the possibility of a resolution,” he said after meeting with President Kiir, promising to brief East African leaders on a potential path to stability.
But is peace still on the table?
The short answer: it’s unclear.
South Sudan has never held a national election. Its government is still the result of a shaky power-sharing deal that emerged from a five-year civil war — a war that left an estimated 400,000 people dead and displaced millions. While the 2018 peace deal ended open fighting, it didn’t resolve the deep-rooted ethnic and political divisions. And with more than two-thirds of the population living on less than $2.15 a day, according to the World Bank, the stakes for renewed conflict are devastatingly high.
The humanitarian situation is dire. The UN says South Sudan is facing “multiple crises at once” — from violence and economic collapse to climate shocks and displacement. Despite its own instability, the country still hosts over half a million refugees fleeing war in Sudan, the DRC, and the Central African Republic.
A Country Hanging by a Thread
In a December report, the World Bank painted a stark picture: violence, corruption, and political deadlock have only deepened the suffering of ordinary citizens. Food insecurity is widespread, infrastructure is minimal, and services are scarce. The latest escalation could undo the little progress that’s been made.
So far, there’s no clear path forward. Kiir remains entrenched. Machar is in custody. Elections are uncertain. And as the peace deal teeters on the edge, so does the country.
What’s happening in South Sudan is not just a political standoff. It’s a human crisis unfolding in real time one that deserves more global attention, not less.
As Guterres put it bluntly: “South Sudan may have fallen off the world’s radar… but we cannot let the situation fall over the abyss.”
