As Nigeria braces for the upcoming “hardship protest” slated for August 1 to 10, 2024, organisers have unveiled crucial details following a request from the Inspector General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun. The protests are billed to be one of the most consequential in the country’s rollercoaster history.
The planned protests, organised by the TAKE IT BACK MOVEMENT, aim to draw attention to the escalating cost of living, widespread hunger, and perceived government inefficiencies. In a letter addressed to the IGP, Ebun-Olu Adegboruwa, SAN, the organisers’ attorney, outlined the specific venues and locations for the protests, ensuring transparency and a formal dialogue with the authorities.
The letter from Adegboruwa highlighted the organisers’ acknowledgement of the IGP’s commitment to upholding citizens’ rights to public assembly. It read, “Our Client acknowledges the commitment of the Inspector-General of Police towards complying with extant legislations granting citizens the right to hold public meetings, public rallies, and public processions and the lawful discharge of the obligations placed upon the police to provide adequate coverage and protection at the venues.”
The protests have not been straightforward so far, as the government has done all it can to stop them from taking place. These actions include a myriad of government officials and elected governors publicly threatening protesters. There have also been more ridiculous actions, like protests against planned protests. Paid protesters converged on Lagos Island to express their support for the Tinubu-led administration and called on other youths to “shun violent protest.” In Bayelsa State, women were seen en masse with placards stating, “Say no to protest in Bayelsa.” The efforts have also been online, with the hashtag #SayNoToProtest.
Security forces have been put on high alert, with the police in Abuja deploying over 4,000 officers in preparation. The army has issued stern warnings against allowing “anarchy” to take hold, and President Tinubu has cautioned against escalation, stating, “We are talking about hunger, not burials. We have to be careful.”
Despite the government’s attempts to dissuade the public from participating, citing ongoing efforts to address the protesters’ demands, the organisers remain resolute. The economic backdrop against which these protests are set cannot be ignored. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and currency controls, have led to a tripling of petrol prices and a spike in inflation. These measures, while aimed at reviving Nigeria’s economy, have placed significant strain on ordinary Nigerians, with food inflation surpassing 40% and hunger spreading, particularly in the northern regions.
Comparisons with Kenya
The impending protests have drawn parallels with recent unrest in Kenya, where citizens took to the streets to oppose new taxes. The demonstrations in Kenya, driven by similar economic grievances, resulted in significant policy reversals. This comparison has fueled speculation about the potential impact and scale of the protests in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country.
However, the situation in Nigeria presents unique challenges. Analysts warn that a heavy-handed response from authorities could escalate tensions. Nigerian risk consultancy SBM highlighted the risks of a “confrontation that may spiral beyond anyone’s control.” The memory of the 2020 #EndSARS protests, which saw a violent crackdown by security forces, looms large, adding to concerns about the potential for violence.
Voices from the Streets
Amidst the preparations, voices from the streets reflect a mix of determination and apprehension. Activists hope for a massive turnout, particularly in major cities like Lagos, Abuja, and Kano. However, many citizens, while sympathetic to the cause, express fears about potential violence and economic repercussions.
Patience, a 27-year-old mother and roadside vendor in Lagos encapsulated the dilemma faced by many. “I would like to join the protests because I need a change in Nigeria,” she said. However, her immediate concern is earning enough to support her nine-month-old son amidst soaring prices. “If I have enough money before that day, I will go,” she added, highlighting many Nigerians’ tough choices.
The sentiment is similarly charged in the north, where the economic impact has been particularly severe. Mansir, a 32-year-old schoolteacher in Kano, expressed his resolve to participate. “We are dying in silence, and it is only when we shout that the government will understand what we are going through,” he said, despite religious leaders urging the public to shun the rallies.
The planned protests are set against a backdrop of historical tensions and previous crackdowns on civil unrest. In truth, the country has been enduring one of the most difficult times in its history. There seems to be a constant reason to protest, and the thing holding the populace back from doing so is a deeply strong ability to endure. In 2020 the limit was almost broken when the #EndSARS protests, which began as a movement against police brutality, quickly escalated into the largest anti-government demonstrations in Nigeria’s modern history. However, before it gained enough traction to lead to real change, violent response from security forces, including the killing of unarmed protesters at the Lekki toll gate, shut it all down. This memory remains a stark reminder of the potential for state violence.
The upcoming protests also echo the “Occupy Nigeria” movement of 2012, which saw mass protests against removing fuel subsidies. The government’s response then, as now, was marked by a mixture of repression and concessions.
